Is the Primary Over Before It Begins?

Plus: Watch Out for ‘Coffee Badgers’

Is the Primary Over Before It Begins?

Fox News reported former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican presidential nomination race with 69% support, up 7 points since November. Ron DeSantis receives 12%, Nikki Haley 9%, Vivek Ramaswamy 5%, Chris Christie 2%, and Asa Hutchinson 1%. In hypothetical general election matchups, Haley leads Biden by 6 points, while Trump is up by 4.

The reported Haley “surge,” however, may be a media construct out of desperation to avoid a dull contest. Freddy Gray at The Spectator speculates:

If all the right-of-center factions who want to stop Donald Trump coalesce around Haley, she could potentially challenge the 45th president in some states. But that’s an extremely tall order. Trump has the advantages of an incumbent president, even if he is not in the White House, and the Republican Party machine appears to have fallen in line with him before even the race for the nomination began. 

New Hampshire may be a little more unpredictable than in other states. The media, desperate to avoid a boring coronation, are keen to boost Haley as someone who might enliven the primaries. But Trump will probably still win New Hampshire, just as he did in 2016, and roll on inevitably towards the nomination in 2024. 

Democrats and Republicans who are dissatisfied with their likely candidate seem to be content with their party’s fate. What is clear — they still dislike the other guy more. From Fox News:

Eight in 10 Democrats think Trump is a "major" threat, while 7 in 10 Republicans say the same of Biden. Among independents, about the same number see Biden (36%) and Trump (40%) as a "major" threat to individual rights and freedoms.

"It’s no surprise many are dreading a 2020 rematch," says Anderson.  "Not only do partisans strongly dislike the likely nominees of the other party, but they also think they are a major threat to their individual rights and freedoms."

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