A New Day, A New Poll

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A New Day, A New Poll

The Daily Wire highlights a New York Times/Siena College poll that shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in key battleground states: Arizona (50-45), Georgia (49-45), and North Carolina (49-47). Trump is favored on issues like the economy and immigration, while Harris leads on abortion.

In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a Spotlight PA/MassINC poll isn’t as favorable to Trump. The Hill reports, “Harris is winning 49 percent support in the poll, compared to 44 percent for Trump, in the race for the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes.”

At Hot Air, David Strom discusses the divergence in election projections, particularly between online analysts and personal observations. Strom’s friend, a political science professor, predicts a landslide victory for Trump, whereas pollsters and analysts, like Nate Silver, suggest a close race with a slight advantage for Kamala Harris. This discrepancy arises from how pollsters model their data, which involves correcting for non-randomness and making assumptions about voter turnout, partisan leanings, and nonresponse biases.

Strom says that polls have historically underestimated Trump’s support and suggests Harris is struggling to gain traction with key voter groups such as labor unions and minorities. Additionally, the uniqueness of this election—marked by Trump’s legal challenges, media treatment, and abortion debates—makes it difficult to model accurately.

Strom concludes:

In other words, their model of the electorate is almost certainly wrong. 

Of course, much of the evidence for my own judgment and Professor X's is based on anecdotal evidence or anecdata, and hence also based on questionable assumptions, I wouldn't rely on it. 

If you are interested in the horserace, follow lots of different modelers and pick your poison. 

RELATED: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump (The Hill)